Charles Chukwuma Soludo is University of Nigeria, Nsukka’s gift to Nigeria. Soludo is one of our country’s leading economist, who has contributed immensely to the economic policy of the country since Obasanjo’s presidency till date. Therefore, I’m usually amused when people give all the accolades for the economic reforms during Obasanjo and Jonathan’s presidency to the former minister of finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. For those who don’t know, our economic reform programmes throughout Obasanjo’s second term, which came to be known as the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy( NEEDS) that recorded the fastest rates of economic growth in the country from 2003 to 2007 was Soludo’s brainchild.This does not mean that other members of the economic team during that period do not deserve credit for their contributions.They do.

As the Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir Ahmad El Rufai, a former prominent member of the team acknowledges in his book, Accidental Public Servant, “the galloping oil prices, which reached historical highs” contributed significantly to our economic growth during that period. Furthermore, he attests to the fact that Soludo’s contribution to the team was not only enormous, but sensational. Another revelation from the book that would shock a lot of people is the squabble between Ngozi Iweala and Charles Soludo over the former getting the spotlight for the job the latter did behind the scene. According to him, the quarrel ended in Soludo being appointed Governor of the Central Bank. Anyone interested in the Harvard vs. Nsukka melodramatic saga, the way I love to refer to it should grab a copy of the book. The details are not only smoky, but entertaining.

This background was necessary for two reasons. First, Soludo is a member of President Buhari’s Economic Advisory Council, So, our economy is still in capable hands contrary to what is making the rounds on social media that President Buhari’s economic team is not good enough. Second, oil prices play a significant role with regard to how the pendulum of the country’s economic fortune swings. When oil prices are high, our economy would blossom and economic activities in the country would increase tremendously. When we experience such windfall, like we did under President Jonathan, our leaders tend to ignore other sectors of the economy like agriculture, manufacturing and the development of critical infrastructure and concentrate more on importing everything money can buy.

If we may recall, during that period the former finance minister, Ngozi Iweala insisted we should save for the rainy day. But the Governors won’t have any of that sort of advice. In line with the then ruling party, the PDP’s philosophy, “Share the money!”They shared the windfall from oil prices, which was between $100 and $110 dollars per barrel for the better part of Jonathan’s presidency. They didn’t save money, they didn’t diversify the economy and they didn’t complete any critical infrastructure: roads, railways, airports, second Niger Bridge, refineries and so on. So, how did they spend the money? I would give just two instances that I find intriguing and compelling. First, the former minister of petroleum, Deizani Alison Madueke, who is now a fugitive in London used to charter a flight to the United States to attend party on Friday and return on Monday to resume work. Second, some Governors were doing monthly contribution of 1 billion naira (popularly called Osusu) instead of building the infrastructure in their respective states. There are more damaging shenanigans, but that’s story for another day. However, it would be unfair if I don’t mention that a huge part of the money was kept for the 2015 general election.

But unfortunately, when the rainy day came, President Jonathan was no longer in power. However, the storm had started gathering after he lost the 2015 presidential election. Conversely, when oil prices begin to decline like aeroplane dropping from the sky, the economy contracts since it is built on oil revenue. The decline in oil prices impact negatively on our foreign exchange earnings. When that happens importation of all kinds of goods and consumer spending power decreases. Automatically, that triggers a decrease in economic activities leading to inflation and unemployment. In economic jargon, the decline in economic activities over a period of time is called recession. This was how we got into the first recession under President Buhari. I wonder if those who troll President Buhari on social media because of the recession are sufficiently informed about the basics of our economy?

Nonetheless, the economic team provided sound economic prescriptions that got us out of the recession in record time such as Treasury Single Account, TSA, the CBN intervention programmes in the agricultural sector, textile industry, manufacturing industry and the SMEs. Others include adjustment in microeconomic and macroeconomic variables to ginger economic activities.The returned Sani Abacha’s loot also contributed significantly in getting us out of the recession. That was the bailout funds the federal government gave to state governments to pay salary and pension arrears to their workers. But even as we speak, many state governors are yet to pay up pension arrears of their retired civil servants, which could have stimulated the economy a great deal. This led to public demonstrations in states like Akwa Ibom and Cross River a few months ago.

But unfortunately, just when we thought we had overcome the recession, the COVID-19 pandemics struck causing economic codification. The total lockdown of the world economy to combat the lethal virus that was becoming far more deadly than public health experts and the WHO had anticipated. The lockdown impacted all facets of human lives globally. But the economy took the greatest hit. Oil prices plummeted to a an all time low in the history of the industry. Oil became cheaper than MacDonald. A barrel of oil at its lowest price sold at about $4 dollars. Even at that no one was ready to buy.

Governments all over the world had to put their economy on ventilators to cushion the devastating uppercut of the coronavirus reminiscent of Mike Tyson or the Nigerian nightmare, Samuel Peters, the police officer who later became world heavyweight boxing champion. Evidently, similar kinds of economic therapy were applied globally to keep the economy afloat: massive bailout to the private sectors, massive investment and spending in the critical sectors of the economy to create jobs and reduce unemployment and direct cash transfer and palliatives to the vulnerable in the society. But unconscionably, that didn’t prevent the economy from sliding into recession when the lockdown was lifted after 3 to 5 months in most countries. Thus, economically speaking, the global economy is in recession. And the developing economies are the worse hit, since they are dependent economies. That is how our country got into the second recession. In our case, the COVID-19 induced recession, unfortunately got accentuated by the ENDSARS protest.

This is what those intellectualizing their ignorance on social media with regards to the recession may not know or may know but choose to be mischievous since they do not like President Buhari for whatever reasons. At the moment, China is the only country that’s currently not in recession because it was the first to lockdown her economy. And the first to unlock while the rest of the world were in a lockdown. Undoubtedly, our second recession was inevitable with the collapse of oil prices in the International market. That is why those knowledgeable about oil prices and our economy don’t blame President Buhari for the two recessions we have experienced back-to-back. Therefore, before you make side comments about our economy from your comfort zone make sure you’re more knowledgeable than Charles Soludo, Doyin Salami, Godwin Emefiele, Rawane Bismarck and others who are managing our economy. Otherwise zip it, if you don’t have something constructive to say. Stop spreading or sharing misinformation on social media about the economy.

That notwithstanding, here is the good news you might not find on social media, the second recession is not as bad as the first one. This is why economic experts are optimistic that with the rising oil prices ($51 per barrel), which is above the 2021 budgetary benchmark coupled with the intervention programmes of the government in every sector of our economy, we should exit recession by the second quarter of next year, everything being equal. However, our romance with recession would resurface in the nearest future if we don’t diversify our economy and also find ways of mainstreaming the informal sector into the economy.

Felix Akpan PhD